The Bulwark Daily

Elon is now pitching in to help POTUS sabotage Ukraine while Trump makes a payout to Putin and works on his next self-enrichment scheme. A Cooper victory in North Carolina would be key to a potential Democratic Senate majority—a first step to reining in Trump—but the former governor warns Tim that Republicans have historically been undercounted in the polls and his lead should not be taken for granted. Plus: Scheiber in his recent book has the backstory on the radicalization of recent college grads, who tend to support the DSA and think America has too much power. And at a time when even white collar professionals identify with the working class, Trump's economic messaging sounds even more ridiculous. Roy Cooper and New York Times reporter Noam Scheiber join Tim Miller. show notes: Cooper’s campaign site Noam’s book, “Mutiny: The Rise and Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class” JVL on Trump screwing the housing market This week’s “The Next Level” Link to send to elected Democrats on behalf of Maryam Tahmasebi and her family The Jay Kang piece that Tim referenced about Noam’s book October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store NOBL gives you real travel peace of mind — security, design, and convenience all in one. Head to NOBLTravel.com for 46% off your entire order! #NOBL #ad

Americans are living in a more dangerous world now because of Donald Trump. Not only because of his now-expanding war in the Middle East, but also through his reckless advocacy of AI. And in his desperation over the midterms, he's cut a sinister deal with Putin, the very same man helping Iran to kill Americans. Rice tells Tim this is not the time to be complacent over the good polling numbers. Just go vote. Plus, Democratic strategist Jackie Rosa checks in from South Texas on the electoral landscape there and offers up some advice on how Dems should talk to Latino voters. Susan Rice and Jackie Rosa join Tim Miller. show notes: JVL on Trump's desperate, weak deal with Putin "The Next Level" podcast out later today Tim's updated candidate list Bobby Pulido's campaign site Johnny Garcia's campaign site in TX-35 October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Not only did the lamest of October surprises blow up in the faces of Ken Paxton and the rightwing loons desperate to get Talarico on something, Greg Abbott is now in a tight race with his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa. And all the money pouring in to prop up Paxton could be better spent on Senate races in Alaska and Kansas. This would be a great time for the Democratic Governors Association to steer (a lot) more funding Hinojosa's way. Plus: Bill and Tim share their long shots, POTUS can't quit showing how much he's in the tank for Putin, MBS is finding out the hard way how the Trump family treats their business partners, don't be distracted by DHS's clownish authoritarianism in raiding Ilhan Omar's home, and the Iranian family that Tim has been advocating for is still in the Dilley detention center. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller. show notes: Will Sommer and Andrew on MAGA's Talarico breakdown Bill in "Morning Shots" on thinking beyond the midterms Bill's "Bulwark on Sunday" with Ron Brownstein Brendan on the Trump superfan running in upstate New York Blake Gendebien's campaign site (NY-21) Gina Hinojosa's campaign Tim's piece on Maryam Tahmasebi and her family October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Bulwark LIVE in Atlanta on Oct. 20 Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You” The Bulwark store Get 15% off OneSkin with the code BULWARK at https://www.oneskin.co/BULWARK #oneskinpod

While the cult of Trump is dragging Republicans' popularity down, the Democrats have good, ideologically diverse candidates running all over the place. And voters aren't stupid: They know Trump's war and his tariffs are why prices are higher. But high-profile polling misses in recent years still haunt Dems, so Adam takes a deep dive into whether Republicans are doing better than the polls are showing. Plus: Derek explains how AI is making our lives more expensive and ponders why people behind AI think it's the most dangerous thing in the world yet still keep trying to build it as fast as possible. And no, AI does not have feelings. Derek Thompson and Adam Carlson join Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes: Derek's "The 26 Most Important Facts About AI and the Economy" Sam's interview with the guy who snitched on Guilfoyle Tim's Take on Vance discussing socialism Nate Silver on Derek's "Plain English" pod The New Yorker video, "Josh's Wedding," that Tim referenced Johnny Garcia's campaign site in TX-35 Katy Padilla Stout's campaign site in TX-23 October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Closing song: Orville Peck's "It's the End of the World" Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

The king of the birther conspiracy knows he needs to round up the white male vote, so he's serving up one of his old faves—straight-up anti-Muslim bigotry. And he's added a new one: Making Americans pay for another political ad, this time about what a tough guy he is. But Trump also has another corruption problem, courtesy of Trump Jr.'s ex-fiancée, Amb. Kimberly Guilfoyle, who seems to have a habit of calling in very expensive favors. Plus: Rubio is laying the groundwork for 2028, Hegseth is lobbying to keep his job after the midterms, the Democratic establishment is coming together for El-Sayed, Bibi has been very bad for Israel, and Trump has created a long-term security crisis for the West as a result of his Iran war. Susan Glasser joins Tim Miller. show notes: Susan on Hegseth declaring victory in the wrong war The NYT on Iran forcing Trump and Hegseth to retreat Sam's interview with the guy who snitched on Guilfoyle Susan's 'Political Scene' podcast Trump falling asleep during the Susan Dell photo-op Will Sommer on the Andrew Tate eel-sex problem October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Closing song: MJ Lenderman's "She's Leaving You" Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Join at functionhealth.com/THEBULWARK and use code THEBULWARK25 for a $25 credit.

Florida's Democratic nominee for the Senate says average Americans right now are living in the dreams of oligarchs and the super-rich, and it's time for regular people to live their own dreams. The progressive maverick promises to fight to help all Floridians—regardless of party—to be healthy, prosperous, and safe. And while Republicans like to point out Nixon's DSA affiliation, the Trump administration itself is acting socialist, while also sending immigrants back to countries like Cuba and Venezuela. Plus: Nixon weighs in on Vance's racist dog whistle, and Tim praises Troy Jackson's debate performance against Susan Collins—who seemed out of touch and was forced to play defense over Trump, the war, and the stupid tariffs. Angie Nixon joins Tim Miller. show notes: Angie’s campaign site October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE shows, including Atlanta on Oct. 20 Closing Song: The War on Drugs - “Suffering” The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to www.joindeleteme.com/BULWARK and use promo code BULWARK at checkout For their buy 1 get 1 50% off deal, head to 3DayBlinds.com/THEBULWARK

Destroying trust in the government is one of Trump's key sources of power, but Michael reports from the front lines of the deep state that there still are good employees serving the public interest. In his new book, Michael celebrates some of the heroes who either managed to survive DOGE—or were stupidly pushed out despite the vital roles they filled. And the absolute failures of DOGE raise serious questions about how Elon could be trusted to run any enterprise. Plus: Trump sure sounded like he was inviting Iran to bomb two big blue cities, and Republicans are rushing money to South Carolina and a very GOP district in Kentucky. Seems like Tim and Bill were onto something with their long-shot midterms picks on Monday. Michael Lewis joins Tim Miller. show notes: Michael's new book, "Blockers: Rebels in the Deep State" Tim's 'Take' on how Trump's corporate enablers should be worried about 2027 Michael's post-Katrina piece, "Wading Toward Home" "The Fifth Risk," Michael's book on Trump 1.0 Michael on Sam Bankman-Fried, "Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon" October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE shows, including Atlanta on Oct. 20 Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - She’s Leaving You The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Like all good demagogues, Trump's appeal works when he's got someone to blame. But it's on his watch that we've got a war-related global food crisis brewing and mass layoffs in Ohio—where Trump just happened to hold a rally over the weekend. So, POTUS is focused on getting his family more money through a new bribery scheme while Republicans struggle to demonize Dems and throw away resources on Paxton. Plus: Bill and Tim share their new long shot picks (in South Carolina, Florida, and Kentucky), Thom Tillis is a coward and a weakling, online trolls claiming The Bulwark is trying to get Dems more hawkish on the war really ought to catch one of our podcasts, and Russia's got a worrisome plague outbreak. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller. show notes: Andrew in “Morning Shots” on the Pierre Damas Bel funeral vs. Trump’s rally Andrew joins Bill for “Bulwark on Sunday” Follow “Bulwark Takes” for breaking and developing news Washington Sun on Trump meme coin/bribery scheme The WSJ on the brewing global food crisis Tim’s new candidate list October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE shows, including Atlanta on Oct. 20 Closing Song: The War on Drugs - “Suffering” The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Get 20% off when you go to trustandwill.com/BULWARK

What is going on with Trump's legs? He appears to be wearing a brace and a recent video shows him standing in a most unnatural way—as though he is mid-exorcism. But his apparent health issues don't seem to be stopping the administration from re-escalating against Iran with an additional 10,000 troops on their way to the region. Meanwhile, Trump's son-in-law, Jared (AKA the point person on the Gaza peace deal) turns out to be a war profiteer heavily invested in Israeli bomb-making companies. Plus: Some of the recent polls have been too rosy for the Dems, Islamophobia may be at play in the Michigan Senate race, Tim makes the case for regime change in Eritrea, and the cabal of guys at the All-In podcast—who bought their access to Trump—are some of the loudest voices pushing for his all gas, no breaks approach to AI. Tommy Vietor joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes: Tommy’s “Pod Save the World” Recent video of Trump standing Closing Song: Orville Peck - “It’s the End of the World” The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Finally, some accountability in Washington: Sen. Eric Schmitt’s general counsel and poster-holder is in career limbo after the infamous basketball mix-up in the Jack Smith hearing. And Americans seem to be holding Trump responsible for their economic frustrations—he’s below the Bush Line. Josh Barro explains: We’re not in a recession, but people feel stuck because borrowing costs are higher. Big budget deficits are inflationary, the president’s war of choice is making things worse, and our leaders don’t have a plan to deal with any of it. Plus, JVL explains why the markets are finally pricing in the risk of Trump’s war, and he and Tim discuss the weirdos running our government, Hegseth’s obsession with masculinity, and the importance of shame in a liberal democracy. Josh Barro and Jonathan V. Last join Tim Miller. show notes: Part one and part two of Tim’s list of Democrats who can win Red America TIME’s interview of Trump Subscribe to JVL’s Triad JVL on oil risk premiums Jodi Kantor for The New York Times on the public shaming of John Roberts Closing Song: The War on Drugs - Suffering Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to www.joindeleteme.com/BULWARK and use promo code BULWARK at checkout.

The Trio comes together on the daily pod for the first time to give a little taste of the MAGA-land news Sam, Will, and Tim are covering for The Bulwark. The latest developments include speculation that Candace Owens may be a lesbian and that Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds pretended he was Jamaican. He may also have very poor judgment on financial matters. But first, Maria talks with Tim about Eric Schmitt and what may be the biggest self-own in the history of the Senate. Plus: Most of the media is still doing fake balance in favor of Trump, the pivotal scandal that knocked Chris Christie out as the 2016 frontrunner—and may have opened the door to you-know-who—and Tim shares details about a kiss he wanted but never got. Ex-Christie aide Maria Comella and Trio members Sam Stein and Will Sommer join Tim Miller. show notes: Tim’s updated list of additional Democratic candidates to support in “The Triad” Will’s “False Flag” newsletter The Trio on Youtube or on Substack The campaign site for Montana’s Sam Forstag The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Vigilance is still in order, but Trump’s efforts to rig the midterms have so far flopped. And that includes Trump’s self-sabotaging of his own plan to blame China for hacking our voting machines. But should the Dems win back Congress, they’re going to be busy tracing all the money that was stolen for the ballroom, the arch, and Pentagon contracts with Trump family members. Plus: Evan discusses his new book, which memorializes both his 16 months in Russian captivity—and the recent history of Russia at war under Putin. Amanda Carpenter and Evan Gershkovich join Tim Miller. show notes: Evan’s book, “This Cursed Beautiful Land” Protect Democracy’s Substack Andrew in “Morning Shots” on impeaching Trump again Sam and Will on Texas’s Bo French The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

The Trump administration stole our tax dollars to run a campaign ad during NFL games on Sunday. They're also breaking the law on congressional funding appropriations—and enjoying rubbing the public's face in all the illegality they're getting away with. In Dayton, The Bulwark had its largest live show ever, and the community came through in a huge way with donations for Haitian immigrants in Springfield. For a taste of the event, we're sharing Tim's interview with Democratic strategist Patrick Gaspard. Plus: Tim and Bill launch a new segment on longshot picks to back in the midterms, Trump is being unbelievably irresponsible on AI, the media is still not talking about the Iranian green card-holding family being held at the Dilley detention center, and Americans need a reminder of the Parable of the Good Samaritan. Bill Kristol and Patrick Gaspard join Tim Miller. show notes: Monday's "Morning Shots," with Bill on Cardinal Robert McElroy, archbishop of Washington Bill’s longshot in Idaho, Todd Achilles Tim’s longshot in Colorado, Jessica Killin The Trio on Victor Marx, running for governor in Colorado A sampling of Jim’s newsletters on Springfield Ohio’s Don Leonard for Congress campaign site Dan Scavino’s AI image Tim referenced Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - She’s Leaving You The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Trump pulled out all the stops at the state dinner to regale the guy who is working with our enemy: Not only has China been helping Iran target and kill American soldiers, it's also been shipping Tehran component parts for drones and missile guidance systems. Senate Republicans, of course, blocked an effort to end the war as one of their last votes before the midterms. Meanwhile, election deniers keep showing us that they're going to try to monkey around with the election results in November. Plus: Alex discusses her new book about the origin story behind today's supermajority Supreme Court, and warns that Republicans may try to steal another SCOTUS seat in the lame duck Congress. Alex Wagner joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes: Alex’s book, “The Steal” Tim’s ‘Take’ on Republican candidates trying to run from their record on the Iran war The WSJ on China shipping drone parts to Iran Tim’s playlist The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

First, Sam Stein sits down with Tim to discuss the latest humiliation of our troops: Trump’s red carpet welcome for President Xi. Plus: the White House’s insane propaganda machine, a new Maine poll throws some cold water on the midterms hopium, Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s obsession with furries, and is RFK Jr. running for president? Then, Tim pulls back the curtain on his interview with Mary Peltola, which wrapped just hours before a new critical New York Times piece dropped. In their conversation, Peltola explained how nearly every issue Alaskans care about can be summed up by “fish, family, and freedom.” And that viral debate moment with Dan Sullivan revealed something deeper: He is not doing enough to protect Alaskans from corporate greed in Washington. Sam Stein and Mary Peltola join Tim Miller. show notes: The New York Times story on Mary Peltola Trump’s new propaganda ad paid for by your tax dollars Video of Trump greeting President Xi The White House’s AI reconstruction of the meeting Jonathan Cohn’s newsletter “The Breakdown” Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You”

The cozy White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Trump joked around with reporters, was only in July. But now he's ripping away press credentials and setting up state-run media. Sarah scolds the WHCA for bending the knee to Trump to begin with. And recent Italian history even foreshadowed the Trump era. Jason, in his new book, explains how Silvio Berlusconi learned how to become the central character in the media. The more he was talked about, the more powerful he became—and the more his opposition became trapped. Plus: a case study of Giorgia Meloni, her love of the hobbits, her opposition to Trump, and the rise of far-right populism in Italy. Also, a little hopium for Texas turning blue. And today's Republicans will always choose power over the interests of women. Sarah Matthews and The New York Times' Jason Horowitz join Tim Miller. show notes: Brendan on watching six straight hours of Trump TV Sarah on MAGA world trying to save Max Miller Jason's new book, "The Italian Job" Catch Tim's TNL rant on George W. Bush Nicole Bassett's Oregeon state senate campaign site BJ's Lounge in NOLA Go to https://zbiotics.com/thebulwark and use THEBULWARK at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.

The party has been busy playing defense in Trump states, and now comes the news that Susan Collins is corrupt on top of being a loyal MAGA supplicant. More Democrats should walk with Ossoff's swagger and keep their message simple: attack Trump on his corruption and the war. (And in colder climes, the price of heating oil.) Meanwhile, subpoenas over Trump Jr.'s Russian mobster-funded wedding are coming, and even some Republicans are likely to get on board. Plus: Ukraine is showing how to fight wars now and how the U.S. under Trump and Hegseth is not ready. And Tim keeps his promise and puts on a hair shirt after LSU's loss to Ole Miss. Stuart Stevens joins Tim Miller. show notes: ProPublica’s reporting on Susan Collins Lauren on how Dems are dealing with the Republicans’ huge war chest Tim’s interview with Wright Thompson last week Stuart’s books, including “The Conspiracy to End America” and “The Last Season” Stuart on performance-enhancing drugs The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Head to https://forkfulmeals.com/thebulwark for 50% off your first order today!

As Trump’s war of choice continues to expand in the Middle East, it’s clear that the president is desperate not to show how weak he really is. The administration is out of time and out of both strategic and rhetorical options in Iran. Another sign that he is flailing: Trump is trying to ban CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House press pool. But other TV outlets are pushing back in solidarity, forcing Trump to choose between two of his favorite things: punishing his critics and dominating the airwaves. Plus why the triumphal arch would be the silliest possible place for a military installation, Trump’s American Idol-style vote on what to call AI, and the unaddressed, ongoing education crisis. Sitting in for Bill Kristol, Andrew Egger joins Tim Miller on the Monday pod. show notes: Tim’s conversation about the latest AI news with Stephen Witt Tim and JVL’s 2023 conversation with Reid Hoffman Andrew in today’s “Morning Shots” on AI Dan Selsam’s statement Nikole Hannah-Jones on her daughter’s public school education The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark Store Song of the Day: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You” For a limited time, get 60% off your first order, plus free shipping, when you head to Smalls.com/THEBULWARK .

In Greenland, the Trump administration has got tech bros and hedge fund guys running an influence operation there. The aim may be to fulfill Trump's territorial ambitions—or to create a sovereign state run by CEOs. In Venezuela, the administration is imperialistically seizing its gold, oil and other assets with no oversight. And in Brazil, the White House is trying to bring the Bolsonaro family back to power—which may or may not have something to do with Elon being angry about the country's tech regulation laws. In Trump 2.0, informal envoys, private companies, and hardened ideologues are turning American diplomacy upside down. Plus: Putin has played Kushner like a fiddle, don't let the story of Don Jr.'s Russian gangster-funded wedding die, new additions to the Applebaum book club, and we're going to have to bulldoze the ballroom. Anne Applebaum joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes: Anne’s Atlantic cover story, “Empire of Grift” “Whistler: A Novel,” Anne's latest book recommendation Tim’s book recommendation, “The Disappearers: A Novel” The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Tim’s playlist Closing song - War on Drugs - “Suffering” Try ZipRecruiter to post your job FOR FREE at http://ziprecruiter.com/BULWARK 4 out of 5 employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day.

Republicans are reeling, the vibes are shifting, and the wave is building. Jesse serves up a particularly optimistic view of the Democrats' chances in the midterms, with even stretch districts now in play. And ahead of Saturday's Ole Miss-LSU game, Wright shares how Mississippians are responding to the gutting of the Voting Rights Act and says that conservative farmers in the state are turning on MAGA. Plus, the love of a father and Ole Miss football, some Magnolia Bowl lore, why 1956 is the linchpin year in college sports history, and predicting the hate ratio on Saturday in Oxford. Wright Thompson and Jesse Lehrich join Tim Miller. show notes: Wright's books, including "The Barn" and "The Cost of These Dreams" Wright's ESPN piece on Friday will post here Jesse's "Nobody Knows Anything" podcast "Nobody's Listening," Jesse's newsletter Campaign site for Eliott Rodriguez, Maria Elvira Salazar's opponent Erick Erickson piece Tim mentioned Bulwark LIVE: Benefit for Springfield The Bulwark Store Try ZipRecruiter to post your job FOR FREE at http://ziprecruiter.com/BULWARK 4 out of 5 employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day.